I agree. Take note that tihs is all in theory. If someone realizes that their stock portfolio is not doing well on the 8-10th year, maybe don't withdraw so much till it eats into your initial capital on the 11th year. Depending on your entry point, if you're extremely unlucky, you will need a longer time to balance out these fluctuations. But yes, you have a point. Market is not always going to be up constantly. It's that we can take advantage of the higher gains during up times, to fill in the gaps during down times, if that makes sense.